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Friday, May 6, 2011

ALLEGEDLY....If There Was Ever Any Doubt....ALLEGEDLY

     If there was ever any doubt as to the perceived objectivity of blogger Geoff Ketchum's  Lonestar 100 rankings, that myth has now been dispelled...allegedly.  Check them out for yourselves…the list is a free product that can be found here: > After further review, I find more value in the12-pack of Charmin Quilted Double Rolls I bought at HEB yesterday.   The only saving grace in all of this is that, with a store coupon, I got the Charmin for 50% less than the price of an OB’s membership.  So, in theory, I won twice!  Per his twitter account, Ketchum is now working on an updated Lonestar 100.  I'm calling my shot right now...Every Longhorn commit that isn't already a top 20 player will move up.  Guys like Blueitt, Norman, and Boyette, who have no business being in anyones top 40 will find themselves on the cusp if not firmly entrenched in the top 30-35.  Oh, and, some of the top 20 players will move up a slot or two as well.

The Breakdown:

     Since the rankings were first published for the class of 2012, kids who have committed to play football at the University of Texas have moved up a total of 247 spots, netting them on average a 19.5 spot jump.  Contrast that with in-state rival Texas A&M's recruits movements on the same list and you can see why many sources consider this particular recruit ranking list less than serious.  On the whole, commits to Texas A&M have dropped a total of 177 spots, for an average of almost 13 spots.

How it Works:

     Whether intentional or purely coincidence it can be plainly seen that one schools players move way up while another schools commits slide WAY down.  That's a fact that can't be overcome.  Just by looking at this year's list, and ignoring all the bumps and slides that happened in previous years, it appears that this chain of events has a few specific triggers.  If a player commits to UT, it is almost a certainty that their ranking will increase.  And, generally, if a player show high interest in UT, his ranking will begin to move up before committing to UT, where it will then reach it's apex.  If a player commits to A&M, or even expresses that he is not interested in an offer from Mack Brown, the precipitous fall begins.

Lets look at a few examples from this year's list:
          -Caleb Blueitt, DE, Beaumont Westbrook - Prior to committing to UT, Blueitt, who is generally considered the 6-8th best DE in Texas, wasn't really on ANYONES radar for the first round of offers.  In fact, prior to his visit to the UT spring game, Blueitt didn't have a single collefe offer and Rivals hadn't even written one article about him.  Within just a few days of the visit, Blueitt moved up 43 spots to sit at his current position.  My guess is that when the updated rankings come out, Blueitt will find himself somewhere around the 40-45 range.
          -Bryson Echols, CB, De Soto - Echols is another interesting case study.  Before committing to UT, Orangelboods (whose is the purveyor of the Lonestar 100), hadn't written a single article about Echols and had him ranked outside of the top 50 in the state.  Shortly after committin to UT, Echols metoric rise garnered him the number 20 overall ranking in the state per The Lonestar 100.  How does a kid who now being billed as a top 20 player in this state not have an Orangelboods snippet written about him until the day he commits to UT?  
          -Kennedy Estelle, OL, Pearland Dawson - Not 4 months ago, Estelle was RIGHTFULLY sitting at the number 18 spot on this years Lonestar 100.  After visiting UT, Estelle slid up to the number 11 spot.  About the time people started considering Estelle a "lock" to UT, he moved all the way up to his current spot...3.  It will be interesting to see where Estelle lands in the final rankings now that his recruitment has opened back up.

Here is a full list of UT's class movements in the past 3-4 months:        
Malcom Brown 5 à 4
Cayleb Jones – has stayed at 5
Camhron Hughes 58 ----> 9 -
Thomas Johnson 16 ----> 11
Peter Jinkens 21 ----> 13
Tim Cole 23 à 14
Curtis Riser 9 à 15
Orlando Thomas 64 ----> 18 -
Bryson Echols 58 ----> 20
Hassan Ridgeway 45 à 27
Alex Norman UR ----> 32
Paul Boyette 43 ----> 35
Alex De La Torre 39 ----> 50
Caleb Bluiett  98 à 55

The Aggies:

Again, as far as intent, I'll let you be the judge of whether or not these player movements were intentional or purely coincidence.  Let's breakdown just a few of the more obvious ones:
          -Trey Williams, RB, Spring DeKaney - No less than a few months ago, Trey Williams was slotted as the number 3 player in the state on the Lonestar 100.  At some point in March, after blowing of UT coaches, Williams began sliding in the rankings to his current spot at number 8.  This is laughable because virtually EVERY other recruiting service considers Williams and Aledo's Jonathan Gray as 1A and 1B, not as 2 and 8.  
          -Trevor Knight, QB, San Antonio Reagan - Knight is an interesting case to look at because he was a long-time UT lean.  As such, he was initially ranked by the Lonestar 100 as the number 19 prospect in the state.  In February, UT took a commitment from Arizona product in QB Connor Brewer.  Within days, when it seemed the UT staff wouldn't be taking any other commitments from quarterbacks, Knight's Lonestar 100 value had dropped to 33.  Within days of committing to Texas A&M, Knight's value again plummeted to 41.
          -Bralon Addison, ATH, Missouri City Hightower - Almost any other list you look at, besides the Lonestar 100, has the explosive Addison in the 8-15 range...and rightfully so.  The Lonestar 100 initially had Addison ranked at the number 10 spot before he began sliding to number 21, which may or may not have anything to do with committing elsewhere and not attending UT's junior day.  Now that Addison has opened his commitment back up, look for him to slide if he commits to A&M in the near future.

The Rest of the Aggie Class:

Trey Williams 3 à 8
Matt Davis 8 à 38
Jordan Richmond 9 à 25
Trevor Knight 19 as a UT lean  à 33 when UT backed off à 41 - after committing to Ags
Mike Matthews 21 à 31
Corey Thompson 29 à 34
Troy Green 30 à 43
Eric Davis 34 à 47  
Jaevon Richardson 21 à 49
Kimo Tipoti 74 à   52
Michael Richardson 23 à 62
Tren Momon 57 à 63
Tyrone Taylor 88 à 71
Michael Wilson 62 à 91 

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Tim Cole???

Word is filtering in through several high-placed sources that none other than Brenham LB Tim Cole was positively identified by dozens of attendees as being in the audience at the Texas A&M Spring Football game...allegedly.  I've always been told that once you commit to Mack, you shut things down or he pulls your ship.  Is that no longer the case after 5-7?  This is an more than interesting note because word is that Tim's offer to play football at Texas A&M has been uncommittable for some time.

Speaking of spring games and Mack...It was widely reported that Mack called for 80,000 fans at the UT spring game.  After the game, UT allegedly issued reports stating the spring game attendance was 45k.  ESPN's Big 12 Blogger, David Ubben, said, "Officials announced 45,000, but as someone who was in attendance, that number was much lower. After fewer than 50 people stuck around for "Toy Story 3" on the big screen after the game, I'm guessing that tradition will end after just one year."  Typical Longhorn media spin...

You be the judge:

If overestimating your spring game attendance by 300% is cool, then consider UT Miles Davis!

Monday, April 18, 2011

The Fab 20 - Texas 2012 (updated)

High School
1.  1
Mario Edwards
     Denton, TX
     Ryan H.S.
Committed to FSU

     Trey Williams
     Spring, TX
     Dekaney H.S.
Committed to Texas A&M
.   Jonathan Gray
     Aledo, TX
     Aledo H.S.
Finalists: TCU, Texas A&M, UT

Outside Looking In: Arkansas, Auburn, Baylor, Colorado, Texas Tech(legacy)

Prognostication:  I’m hearing TCU
     Malcom Brown
     Brenham, TX
     Brenham H.S.

Committed to UT

     Javonte Magee
     San Antonio,         
     Sam Houston
Arkansas, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UT

Baylor - 65%
     Kendall Sanders
     Athens, TX
     Athens H.S.
Committed to Oklahoma State

UT has now offered and is really making a push…despite what other services say

Prognostication: Will stay @ OSU – 95% 
     Cayleb Jones
     Austin, TX
     Austin H.S.
Committed to UT

     Jordan Richmond
     Denton, TX
     Ryan H.S.
Committed to Texas A&M

     Bralon Addison
Missouri City, TX
Hightower H.S.
Committed to Oklahoma State

Prognostication: Texas A&M – 100%
    Matt Davis
     Houston, TX
     Klein Forest
Committed to Texas A&M
    LaDarrell McNeil
     Dallas, TX
     A Maceo Smith
Arizona, Baylor, Kansas, Michigan, Oklahoma, TCU, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Prognostication:  Texas A&M 60%
    Dominique Wheeler
     Crockett, TX
     Crockett H.S.
Auburn, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, UT

Prognostication:  TCU 90%
    Michael Starts
OL or DL
     Waco, TX
     La Vega H.S.
Auburn, Baylor, TCU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UT

Prognostication: Texas A&M 75%
    Kenneth Marshall
     South Houston,        
     South Houston
Committed to Oklahoma State
    Mike Matthews
     Fort Bend, TX
     Elkins H.S.
Committed to Texas A&M
    Corey Thompson
ATH – WR or S
     Fort Bend, TX
     Elkins H.S.
Committed to Texas A&M
    Edward Pope
     Carthage, TX
     Carthage H.S.
Committed to TCU
    Kennedy Estelle
     Pearland, TX
     Dawson H.S.
Auburn, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, USC, UT, Wake Forest

Prognostication: Hearing a lot of Auburn noise – 70%
    Trevor Knight
   San Antonio, TX
   Reagan H.S.
Committed to Texas A&M
    Tim Cole
   Brenham, TX
   Brenham H.S.
Committed to UT

Others receiving votes/consideration:  Kimo Tipoti, OL, Hurst LD Bell(Texas A&M); Reginald Davis, WR, Tenaha(Texas Tech); Dalton Santos, LB, Van (Okla. St.); Brian Nance, LB, Euless Trinity(Uncommitted); Thomas Johnson, WR, Skyline(UT); Curtis Riser, OL, De Soto(UT); Eric Davis, DE, Tyler (Texas A&M); Michael Wilson, OL, Aledo (Texas A&M); Clayton Nicholas, QB, Abilene (Texas Tech